A cycle of publications - The Beginning of the End of Oil, Climate Change

Regardless of the heightened awareness that our oil resources are finite, demand for oil is growing. In the last years it grew from 79.8 (2003) to 84.3 (2005) million barrels per day (bpd).


Supply, on the other hand, appears to have peaked. Late in 2006, James Kunstler wrote, We now have nine and a half months of “rearview mirror” action to look back and see that world oil production has retreated from its all-time high of just over 85 million barrels a day (mbd) achieved in December 2005 (just as geologist Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton had predicted). For 2006, production has remained in the 84 mbd range every month reported so far, while demand has exceeded that.


We appear to have initiated the beginning of the end of the petroleum era on this planet.


We need only look at a single example, China for instance, to glimpse the international ramifications of the end of oil. [CS1]  China needs oil to maintain domestic stability. If it can’t supply the liquid energy to keep its transportation sector—and hence its economy—moving ahead, it risks large-scale internal disruption. When the fact that available oil has peaked starts to become generally known, a global competition for the dwindling supply will ensue. The Chinese are now involved in a comprehensive international outreach to African countries, buying up resources (not just oil) in Nigeria, Angola, Congo, Sudan. In the near future, if China is confronted with the choice between domestic instability or using violence to secure access to decreasing supplies held by another country, will that be a hard decision? Even if the Chinese economy were to slow down, the absolute economic growth  is still likely to continue with a pressure from India.


Species Extinction


Identifying another trouble spot in our priorities, Dr. Eric Chivian, director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, succinctly puts his finger on the paradox of our ecological values:
 

Despite an avowed reverence for life, human beings continue to destroy other species at an alarming rate, rivaling the great extinctions of the geologic past. In the process, we are foreclosing the possibility of discovering the secrets they contain for the development of new lifesaving medicines and of invaluable models for medical research, and we are beginning to disrupt the vital functioning of ecosystems on which all life depends. We may also be losing some species so uniquely sensitive to environmental degradation that they may serve as our “canaries,” warning us of future threats to human health.  
 

The speed of species extinction has forced scientists to refer to the current era as the sixth extinction event, comparable to only five other events in the known history of the biosphere (That’s a few billion years!)


A good example is a “new study that shows that the oceans’ fish are being depleted so fast that eating seafood might be just a memory in forty years. The researchers say more is at stake than our diet, for they find the dwindling of fish stocks hurts the world economically and the ocean environmentally.”


According to the UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, the challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their services could be partially met under some scenarios that have been considered, but these involve significant changes in policies, institutions, and practices, that are not currently under way. In the face of the kinds of threats that we are facing, we must ask ourselves what it takes to initiate the changes of policies, institutions, and practices that is needed to assure our survival.


Climate Change


Our climate is changing. “Earth is already as warm as at any time in the last 10,000 years, and is within 1њC of being its hottest for a million years … Another decade of business-as-usual carbon emissions will probably make it too late to prevent the ecosystems of the north from triggering runaway climate change.”


Feedback loops (the self-reinforcing relationships between the change in carbon dioxide [CO2], global warming, and other factors) appear to be driving the dynamics of climate change and, once established, are the source of exponential rates of growth  of surface warming.


Although the majority of the world’s climate scientists believe that global warming is being driven by increases in atmospheric pollution, there are conflicting theories about what is behind the change.  Some propose that changes in the ocean may be the major influence; others point to cycling in the sun’s output (which appears to be warming other planets as well) as the culprit.  Regardless, the fact is that planet-wide climate change is upon us and we will have to deal with its near-term implications.


Melting ice also means thawing permafrost, which releases large amounts of methane (ten times more effective than CO2 at contributing to global warming) into the atmosphere. Scientists believe that major methane releases during ancient warming trends have been responsible for mass extinction events. In the tundra of Siberia, “researchers report that permafrost has begun to melt rapidly, and, as it does, the formerly frozen methane … is escaping into the atmosphere. In some places [during the winter of 2005], the methane bubbled up so steadily that puddles of standing water couldn’t freeze even in the depths of the Russian winter.”


An increase in global temperatures can also interfere with the workings of the ocean conveyor belt  and bring another ice age to Europe. The earth’s ocean system is characterized by thermal inertia. This means that it adapts slowly to global cooling and warming, but once it starts to warm up or cool down, the process will extend for a long period of time. For us, it means that even if all human emissions were to stop now, thermal inertia of the ocean could sustain an increase in global temperatures.

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