A cycle of publications - Major Economic Disruption

According to Warren Buffett, the current financial system is highly unstable. Highly complex financial instruments called derivatives are time bombs and “financial weapons of mass destruction.”


Investor George Soros pronounced the same criticisms regarding the global financial system. He believes that unless fundamental reforms are implemented, the current system will continue on a spiral of crises.


Although extraordinary, unprecedented interventions by governments appear to have slowed the decent of financial markets, thoughtful analysts like Nouriel Roubini of New York University suggest that this is just the beginning of a process that may last as much as two years and generate many more losses than have presently been experienced.


Climate Change


Our climate is changing. “Earth is already as warm as at any time in the last 10,000 years, and is within 1њC of being its hottest for a million years … Another decade of business-as-usual carbon emissions will probably make it too late to prevent the ecosystems of the north from triggering runaway climate change.”


Feedback loops (the self-reinforcing relationships between the change in carbon dioxide [CO2], global warming, and other factors) appear to be driving the dynamics of climate change and, once established, are the source of exponential rates of growth[CS1] of surface warming.


Although the majority of the world’s climate scientists believe that global warming is being driven by increases in atmospheric pollution, there are conflicting theories about what is behind the change. Some propose that changes in the ocean may be the major influence; others point to cycling in the sun’s output (which appears to be warming other planets as well) as the culprit. Regardless, the fact is that planet-wide climate change is upon us and we will have to deal with its near-term implications.


Melting ice also means thawing permafrost[CS2] , which releases large amounts of methane (ten times more effective than CO2 at contributing to global warming) into the atmosphere. Scientists believe that major methane releases during ancient warming trends have been responsible for mass extinction events. In the tundra of Siberia, “researchers report that permafrost has begun to melt rapidly, and, as it does, the formerly frozen methane … is escaping into the atmosphere. In some places [during the winter of 2005], the methane bubbled up so steadily that puddles of standing water couldn’t freeze even in the depths of the Russian winter.”


An increase in global temperatures can also interfere with the workings of the ocean conveyor belt [CS3] and bring another ice age to Europe. The earth’s ocean system is characterized by thermal inertia. This means that it adapts slowly to global cooling and warming, but once it starts to warm up or cool down, the process will extend for a long period of time. For us, it means that even if all human emissions were to stop now, thermal inertia of the ocean could sustain an increase in global temperatures.

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Au: This isn’t totally clear. Rates of growth of what?


Au: Ah ha! Is this what you meant in the first paragraph about ecosystems triggering climate change? If so, it makes a lot of sense to move this paragraph up, OR make the reference in this first paragraph more general OR move the reference in the first paragraph to the end of this paragraph.


Au: This is a little unclear in what it’s setting up for the paragraph it introduces. Is this a metaphor saying that the ocean will be the cause of another ice age? Or is it a physical comparison of conveyor belt to ocean currents?

12.11.2008. Views: 2874

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